THE outlook for Nigeria’s oil output, including condensate, remains gloomy at 1.4 million barrels per day, mbpd, in the second half of 2024, according to industry data and forecast.

The economy is at risk due to a 1.4 million barrels per day decrease in crude oil production.

The output forecast is far below the 1.8mbpd quota given to Nigeria by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC, as well as the 1.7mbpd stated as 2024 budget benchmark by the Federal Government.

This indicates oil revenue shortfall of about N1 trillion against the 2024 budgetary expectations.

The data obtained from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, NUPRC, June 2024 report – Crude Oil and Condensate Production – indicated that on month-on-month, MoM, the nation’s oil output, excluding Condensate dropped by 2.3 per cent to 1.25 million bpd in June 2024, from 1.28 million bpd in April 2024.

The data indicated that the nation’s oil output continued its downward trend from January 2024 when it recorded 1.6 million bpd, before falling to 1.5 million bpd, 1.4 million bpd and 1.3 million bpd in February, March and April 2024, respectively.

Since then, the NUPRC’s report indicated that the output has not recovered as it hovered at 1.3 million bpd and 1.4 million bpd in April and May 2024, respectively.

OPEC disclosed that Nigeria’s oil output, excluding Condensate, remained flat at 1.2 million bpd in May 2024 and 1.2 million bpd, in April 2024.

In its June 2024 Monthly Oil Market Report, MOMR, obtained by Financial Vanguard, OPEC noted that the data were based on information obtained from direct or official sources.

But when secondary sources were considered, OPEC put Nigeria’s oil output in May 2024, at 1.4 million bpd, excluding Condensate.

Similarly, there are indications that oil exploration, which culminates in production also dropped month-on-month, MoM, by 15.8 per cent, in May 2024, due mainly to limited investment.

The most recent Monthly Oil Market Report from OPEC indicated that the nation’s rig count, a significant indicator of upstream activities, decreased to 16 in May 2024, from 19 in April 2024.

While OPEC did not specify the reasons for this change, investigations by Financial Vanguard suggested that there were limited production activities in Nigeria during that period.

Outlook not looking bright – Zakka

In a telephone interview with Financial Vanguard, an energy expert, Dr. Bala Zakka, said:

“The outlook does not look bright in the short and medium term because the facts are there. For instance, the rig count, an index of measuring activities have not been rising, but falling.

“Every day, my colleagues and I in Nigeria and other parts of the world discuss this and other issues. The conclusion we have does not point towards the possible high oil output in the second half of 2024.”

Similarly, an energy analyst, who pleaded to be anonymous, said:

“Nigeria might not still be able to meet its output targets in the remaining part of the year. This would likely impact negatively on the budget.”

Nigeria need to reduce, end oil theft – Ayuk

On his part, NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman of the African Energy Chamber, stated:

“When you take a look at the African Energy Chamber’s Nigeria’s month-on-month output so far in 2024 you can predict on second half of 2024, H2’24, forecast. In the short term, the forecast might not be so volatile or declining that we need some efforts to stabilize the production. For Nigeria, it would be making sure that oil theft is minimised, no pipeline vandalism/sabotages happen and infrastructure damages are avoided so as to rule out any steep drops in the monthly output.

“In the longer term, however, Nigeria can go into a terminal decline similar to Angola if the existing issues are not sorted out.

‘‘It is true that indigenous players will play a much bigger role in the onshore/swamp/shallow water regions as International Oil Companies, IOCs, continue to divest. But any obstructions to oil flows in the Niger Delta due to any damages to infrastructure should be avoided and oil theft minimized.

“It remains interesting to see the scale of development these (relatively) smaller players can bring as opposed to some of these blocks lying dormant with IOCs. ‘‘Production trend reversal, however, is largely dependent on the deepwater finds where majors are still present and the administration will need to facilitate better business and economic environment for the majors to bring these finds onto the drawing board in Nigeria’’.

Minister of Energy, not President to drive industry – Agbakoba

In an interview with Financial Vanguard, a senior lawyer and Human Rights Activist, Dr. Olisa Agbakoba, said:

“We need a transformational new oil and gas policy that is accountable, transparent and focuses on development and building the nation and its people but most importantly moving away from the policy of contract oil to development oil where an active Minister of Energy and not the President drives hydrocarbon policy.

“We must put an end and create a transition for the IOCs to become service providers of oil revenue and not partners which contradicts section 44 of the constitution that gives Nigerians sovereignty over all its natural resources.

”The IOCs have no interest in Nigeria other than profit in oil. New thinking is required to enable our long-suffering Nigerians, especially in the Niger Delta, feel the impact of oil. We have 37 billion barrels of proven reserves of oil. We cannot and shouldn’t be in this terrible condition.”

We can produce 2m bpd – NNPC

However, the Group CEO of NNPC Limited, Mallam Mele Kyari, said that with Nigeria’s current assets, the industry can produce two million barrels per day (bpd).

He said: “We went down in our production of oil and gas, nowhere near our capacity or our capability. We can blame anything, oil theft, integrity, divestments and so forth.”

The Minister of Petroleum Resources (Oil), Senator Heineken Lokpobiri, observed that the immediate and long-term economic prosperity of Nigeria depended on increased production that would enable the country to meet domestic demands for crude oil and gas, as well as for export to earn foreign exchange.

Divestment to boost oil output – Komolafe

However, the Chief Executive of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Engr. Gbenga Komolafe, stated that as a business facilitator, the NUPRC has taken bold steps to finalize asset divestments in order to enhance oil and gas investment and production.

He said: “The NAOC-Oando divestment has been concluded the signing ceremony will come up any moment.

“The Eqioner – Project Odinmim project divestment was also completed. For the SPDC–Renaissance deals, documents have been submitted. Those documents are undergoing due diligence as we speak.

“And for us in Nigeria, our deep offshore accounts for 43% of our total oil reserve. Also, our total international oil production, our deep offshore accounts for 30% of our daily production. And of the total world development, the deep offshore contributes 60% of the entire world. So the impact of this is that our deep offshore in Nigeria is very, very proficient, very prolific.”

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Speaking on future developments and opportunities in Nigeria’s deep-water sector, Engr. Komolafe highlighted that projects such as OML 145 – Nsiko field and OML 118 – Bonga Southwest/Aparo field present substantial investment opportunities. These matured fields and new field developments are expected to yield significant oil recovery.

According to him, Nigeria’s reserves and production distribution cut across different terrains, emphasising the potential for offshore and deep offshore fields.

Komolafe pointed out that the 2024 Licensing Round, scheduled from May to December 2024, is expected to further boost investment with 31 blocks available for bidding, thus providing Nigeria with additional oil and gas assets to boost output in the coming years.